Blue Lake, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

380
FXUS65 KPSR 021108
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
408 AM MST Thu Jan 2 2025

.UPDATE...Updated 12z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm conditions will persist into the weekend, with the
warmest temperatures of the next 7 days occurring on Friday. A
cooler air mass is expected to move into the region over the
weekend as a weather system passes mostly to the north, but
temperatures will still remain several degrees above normal.
Another dry weather system is then expected to affect the region
by next Tuesday with breezy to locally windy conditions possible.
Precipitation chances will remain near zero through the entire
forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As with the last several days, not much has changed with the
weather pattern impacting the region. The persistent dry
northwesterly flow will last through today, before it turns
southwesterly as an upper level ridge shifts into the region from
the southwest. The mild conditions we have been seeing over the
past several days will get even warmer today into Friday as the
ridge moves over ahead. Highs today may reach 75 degrees across
portions of the lower deserts before the upper 70s will be
possible on Friday across south-central Arizona. However,
increasing high clouds on Friday may keep Phoenix from reaching
its daily record of 79 degrees.

By Friday night, the upper level ridge will get pushed southeast
of the region as a Pacific trough comes onshore across northern
California. This incoming weather system will as usual lose the
bulk of its moisture across California, but even so the track of
the system will bypass our area as it moves through southern Utah
on Saturday. However, it will bring noticeably cooler air into the
region dropping highs back into the lower 70s across the lower
deserts while bringing some light breeziness down the Lower CO
River Valley this weekend.

Ensemble guidance seems to have finally come to a better consensus
for early next week as the building ridge over the eastern Pacific
is very likely to stay to our west through at least the first half
of the week. After the first system tracks well to our northeast
on Sunday, a second weaker shortwave is forecast to quickly dive
southeastward across Oregon and California on Monday. Another weak
shortwave should also follow the Monday disturbance, eventually
both consolidating over southern California and/or western
Arizona later on Tuesday. The exact evolution of these systems is
still a bit uncertain, especially with the track, but guidance
agrees there will be virtually no system moisture keeping
precipitation chances below 10%. A slightly cooler air mass is
also expected to move into our region from the north by the middle
of next week likely lowering highs closer to seasonal normals to
a couple degrees above normal. We should also see a period of
breezy to locally windy conditions focused across southeast
California/Lower CO River Valley and over the Arizona higher
terrain on Tuesday into early Wednesday. There is still quite a
bit of model uncertainty for the latter half of next week as the
disturbance that moves through our area may become cut off over
northern Mexico for a period. The ridge to our west may also
eventually nudge its way into our region at some point later next
week, but it may not bring much of a warm up as it is likely to
be transitory.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1108Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major aviation weather concerns with a FEW passing cirrus decks
can be expected through the TAF period. The overall wind pattern
will continue to exhibit the typical diurnal tendencies with
speeds aob 7 kts. Extended periods of very light and variable
winds to calm conditions can be expected as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Continued dry and warm weather is expected over the next couple of
days with daily highs well into the 70s through Saturday before
readings drop back to around 70 degrees starting Sunday. MinRHs in
the mid teens will be common through the weekend with poor to fair
overnight recoveries into the 30s for most locations. Light winds
will persist through Friday with directions mostly following
typical diurnal trends. Winds over the weekend will become breezy
at times mainly across the Lower CO River Valley and over higher
terrain areas east of Phoenix. A more unsettled weather pattern is
expected next week with at least one dry weather system passing
through or just past the region resulting in a period of
localized windy conditions.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman